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Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, but block by block. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, where the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He has 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it so then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.