🔗 Share this article

Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.