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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.